Population's Effects on the Relations between Russia, China, and the United States

Original content created by Lina Abisoghomyan

 
 
 

The Players

> Populations

Russia: 142,423,773 (July 2015 est.) #10

China: 1,367,485,388 (July 2015) #1

USA: 321,368,864 (July 2015) #4

The Background

China is facing increasing domestic responsibility with the re-settling of rural to urban areas of staggering amounts of people. Because of these, we have seen skyrocketing numbers for the investment in real estate over the years. This growth, however, has contributed to a sort of bubble because of high prices and low ability of poor re-settled farmers to pay for the fancy new homes. 

China's other issue is its aging population, with an exception of a 2:1 ratio of retirees to workers over the next twenty years. 

Russia has seen a shrinking population because of low birth rates, combined with health concerns including pollution, and drinking. The replacement rate has been marginal at best, and young men have been unable to be employed which affects family growth and sustainability. Even with immigrants, many illegal, this has still not been able to make up the gap. With an aging population and a low labour force, Russia is struggling to maintain a balance in its structural makeup.

The US is facing a largely immigrant population influx, particularly from Mexico. The non-Hispanic white population will only make up 50% of the population by the year of 2050. The US is the only country the world to have the birthright citizenship, this also affects they ability to control population. 

The Story

The population situations in all these countries varies greatly. 

Domestic strains like the government struggling to provide services and thus increasing taxes, and continued population density cause China to expand its urban population and has an effect on the economic development of the country. The Real Estate bubble is a huge concern, but has thus far been kept separate from China's strong capacity in productivity and trade with the United States. This combines well with Russia's aging population, that proves a lack of people to work in specialized and formal areas of expertise. Russia has increasingly been partnering with China in order to ensure a balanced import/export ratio in its market. 

The United States has, on the other hand, a surplus of unspecialized labour, mostly by illegal immigrants whose price elasticity provides a tax-free, low-price option for consumers. 

The relationship between these three countries is looked upon as that between two groups, the East and the West. The West is encouraging larger industrialization though there is little contribution from the legal job market, and the East is balancing resources in order to assure decreased poverty and a more sustainable system of domestic production and international trade.Therefore, we see a tension between the US and China in terms of population growth that is only slightly curbed by the per-capita GDP. The political implications are much more slight. Though there is no denying the palpable tension between the East and West, the rift can only grow so large with the cornucopia of mutual interests that drive these large industrial countries. The only competition here is in which country can prove to be the most effective in its policy, and this again leads back to the productivity it can maintain.